Future of the Web - 2010 edition

by Omar AlBadri on 1/4/2010 4:28:00 PM

Read about where I think the internet is going... 2010 edition

Future of the Web - 2010 Edition

Every year I play Nostradamus and  I write down my thoughts on what I think the new and emerging paradigm/ideas of the year will be. Lets see how I did last year first: 

Prediction 1: Software is Dead, Long live cloud computing - Maybe I predicted this a little bit ahead of its time but with hosted applications becoming a norm, we are moving away from a purchasing model to a subscription based, cloud computing model

Prediction 2: Forget the Operating System - just  give me something that runs a web browser - Google Chrome OS anybody. I nailed this one correctly as Google pretty much had the same idea. With everything internet based is there really any reason to have an OS any more? If it wasnt for Word and Excell I wouldn't even purchase software anymore

Prediction 3: TV and the Music industry will finally realize that a head up ones one ass never smells good - I though that the movie industry would realize that with bitTorrent growing that the time to react was now. I made one miscalculation, I gave the movie and TV industry way too much credit. People are stealing movies and tv at a even bigger alarming rate.

Prediction 4: If you build it they will come - Pretty much nailed this one as Blackberry now has an App store. Andriod has tons of apps. IPhone is making a killing of its apps. Build a framework and a good product and let the community make it better.

Prediction 5: More and more companies will realize Open source is not such a bad thing - Again NAILED IT. Open source use to be a four letter word as account managers screamed that Inteluctal property was being lost, but now days Open source or at least the option to purchase the source is becoming the norm.

 Not bad 3 for 5. Here is the 2010 list as again I do not expect all these ideas to happen in 2010, these are just where I think technology will go.

1.  Cloud and Virtualization

Picture this scenario: You sitting at you friends Bill's house on a Monday night watching the game. Your boss calls you screaming and shouting that your web site/system is down and all hell is breaking loose. No worries you ask Bill if you can use his laptop and open up a web browser and connect to your computer. So what, you think, I can do that now with Logemin.com or Gotomypc. Correct but I am leaving out a crucial part, you computer does not really exist. Well the physical computer doesnt exist. There is no unit siting under you desk, you computer is in a cloud, consuming resources as it is needed, avaliable to you anywhere, anytime, anyplace. I predict that the physical computer ( hard disk, DVD drive, Case) will soon be a thing of the past. We will soon be computing in the cloud thru dumb terminals.

 

2. Real time becomes the norm for Analytics.

This has already started to take effect as Google and Bing are already indexing Twitter and Facebook into their search results, but why stop there. The web is an ever changing and here is an example. As soon as I finsh this post I will post a tweat on my twitter page (@oalbad) and my followers may or may not click on the link. I should be able to know instatanlyt how many of my followers are reading this post. Real time searching is becoming a norm Analytics is next.

 

3. The Tv industry says "what the hell" and releases a Ad supported torrent.

Of all my predections this one seems the least likely to happen. Why you ask, cause it just makes too much damn sense. I mean who wouldn't download a pefect quality video file that is released on or before the show is to debut with a Hulu like one or two commercials in it? Hell if you wanted you could leave a watermark logo of some company/product in the bottom left corner and people wouldn't care.  People torrent because its easier and because they do not wanna pay $50 a month for a bunch of channels that they never watch. They also do not want to pay $5 a month for a service like Tivo when there are cheaper alternatives out there. The last thing that they care about is watching an ad or two. We just do not want to sit through 6 minutes of commercials for every 10 minutes of content. We are too busy.

 

4. Andriod takes down the IPhone 

I love the IPhone, I think its a great device, but he Apple has too much control and what have we learned over the past years, too much control is bad (see Soft,Micro) I feel the Adroid will change all that. It will become the open source alternative to Apple akin to Linux to Microsoft.

 

 

5. Facebook become this generation  Yellowpages but starts to die a slow death

With the increasing moving away from datamining to people mining, Facebook will become this generations Yellowpages. Those old enough to rememember those big large books were you could look up any name and get a phone number. Facebook will fill that role but increasily become less and less relevant. As people move on to Mobile Social Apps, Facebook will become a entry point to find your friend but no longer the end point.

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